It's easy to project back to Q1 on what people were thinking. But Apple sold a record number of iphones in Q1 2010. Higher than Q4 2009 which is normally the big quarter for phone sales for everyone. So were people really holding off? Proof of the next version didn't show up until Q2.
The smartphone market is growing so fast that it takes big increases in sales just to maintain market share. iphone has a bit of a cap in the US as long as there's no CDMA version. If this story is correct, AT&T has exclusivity until 2012. Confirmed: Apple and AT&T signed five-year iPhone exclusivity deal -- but is it still valid? -- Engadget
I think Apple jumps back to #2 in Q3, but Q4 is going to be a dogfight.