Since I'm out of contract now I assume they will get me for a new one. But since the last time I was in the store they differentiated between Replacement and Upgrade maybe not. What I would get is just a later model of what I own.

Since I'm not carrier shopping does it make a difference?

Since there seem to be several new devices hitting the market in the next months it might be to my advantage to be flexible, as long as the old one hangs in there.