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Old 07-26-2007, 11:57 AM   #12 (permalink)
Mark Rejhon
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I got a little RIMM after they had their big run from the 950 days (I almost bought that early, but they were still way overvalued back in those days when they only had 50,000 subscribers! That would have been a 20-bagger if I did). However, I bought before they went consumer (back in the NTP FUD days) so I am still on a nice gain from that.

My investing horizon is longterm -- I typically hold stocks for years. I still have Cisco from 1997... I tend to ignore short term signals. (So daytraders and technicals don't often factor into my decisions.)

The question is when I should sell. One needs to evaluate whether RIMM will be significantly higher in 5 years. There's iPhone competition now, but RIMM is being confident. But 2 years ago, few of us believed RIMM would have memory cards, cameras, and multimedia playback in BlackBerries today. I'm pretty sure they can stay competitive. There's still 7 billion more people in the market out of the 9 million current subscribers. The market is big enough that I can wait a decade -- what if RIMM has 90 million subscribers worldwide in 2017? Then it's worth I hold my stock that long, even at a slower growth (but still market beating). On the other hand, they can dangerously stumble, lose out to Apple and other vendors -- it could happen. After all, we've already hit the market cap of one of the massive ones: Motorola. We're nearing the territory of "big ones" so possibly goodbye to fairly fast growth... But they have defied these predictions so far, and I expect they will. iPhone is a good phone and preferred by some, but isn't a universal preference for everybody -- and I tend to believe RIMM when they believe iPhone is helping grow the smartphone market..

Anyway, short term I don't see much happening to RIMM. If I was buying today, I certainly won't buy just plainly because it's overvalued. (Then again -- I thought Apple was overvalued last year, and look at where they are now. Ditto for Nintendo when the Wii came out. Doh!)
Mark Rejhon
Author of XMPP extension XEP-0301: - specification - open source

Last edited by Mark Rejhon : 07-26-2007 at 12:14 PM.