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I'd bet on UK Voda being the first, with a June release, for three reasons.
Voda have not led a BB model release since the 8300 a year ago, they'd love to get their huge corporate BB user base across to 3G quickly because it costs them less, and they don't have a deal on the forthcoming 3G iPhone, which may start to hurt once the implications of its support for MS Exchange become known.
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I agree that I'd put my money on Vodafone getting in to gear first, but as for the iPhone I disagree - nobody gives a monkeys about the iPhone here and it's not because of the connectivity speeds, it's the price point. Unless the contractual price of the iPhone is under £150 on a bundled airtime agreement of under £45 a month then it just won't sell here. If anything, Vodafone would be more likely be interested in getting the 9000 to market for political reasons - they pissed RIM off when they signed up with Visto to bring 'Vodafone Business Email' to the table and it fell predictably on it's arse and now you see Visto staff being laid off all over the place. Vodafone tried to bring their own unproven front end brand to a mobile email platform and it sank, and now they need to get back in bed with RIM. Lets also not forget that Vodafone's UK 3G network puts O2's to shame, and this would be a big win for them.