Originally Posted by Alex Alexzander
To date they have already sold more than 4 million iPhones. In contrast, there are over 11 million BlackBerry users. But consider how little time Apple has been selling the iPhone. It's not hard to imagine Apple outselling RIM in the next year at this pace.
The question is, can they keep up the pace, or even accelerate it. I have no idea, but if you watch the quarter by quarter results, you'll gain some insights into that answer. So far, it looks to be building momentum.
Iphone just went international and BB has gotten more serious about it, so that'll be an interesting test. I expect Iphone to have an edge there.
But I also think comparing total sales of the Iphone to current users of BB ignores all the BB users who've traded up from older models. Total sales for all BB is a lot higher than 11 million.
Iphone has no upgrade option yet. A good portion of those 11 million BB users will be replacing their devices with new BB's in the next few years.
With Iphone, I can see a lot of upgrades to their next device, but beyond that what can they really add to keep that upgrade cycle going? If it were already 3G and fixed a lot of the things users complain about, who would get the next one? That's the situation after the next one. Mostly sales to new users I think.
Meanwhile, Nokia has some pretty impressive new models. GPS and all kinds of bells and whistles. If push email weren't keeping me stuck to BB, I'd be thinking Nokia instead of Iphone as my next phone.