Rawr's diagnostics worked great on my system, got rid of the runtime error right away.
For those interested follow all of the instructions in the TKC document, then run the sync. Open up the tif.log in
H:\Documents and Settings\[your user name]\Application Data\Research In Motion\BlackBerry\Intellisync
scroll down to the end of the document and you'll find the Outlook item that causes the conflict.