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-   -   RIM's Future...my rant (http://www.blackberryforums.com/rim-stock-legal-discussion/31379-rims-future-my-rant.html)

RxistKJ 04-09-2006 04:04 AM

RIM's Future...my rant
 
Unfortunately, IMHO, Blackberry is on the decline trying to decide if it is a software or hardware company. As much as I love their true "Push" email solution, the average WM5 user, with MSFP (client side AKU2), will not be able to distinguish between Microsoft's DirectPush solution and BES email functionality. However, the average CIO of an organization will clearly realize the ROI of Microsoft's solution, without the requirement of propietary software, to achieve virtually "real-time" email delivery.

By no means do I consider RIM out of the game and I am confident they have an "Ace up their sleeve"; but this "Ace", as I'm sure they understand, will require a shift in their business model. Sustaining 70% of their revenue from propietary hardware is unrealistic...if you think I'm way off base then consider how many OEM handhelds are being introduced in 2006 with BB Connect functionality. Furthermore, closely examine RIM's most recent earnings or, more importantly, their very public announcement about creating hardware that has more MMS functionality. Just my $.02 worth but I look forward to RIM redefining itself...and welcome your thoughts.

wibbly 04-09-2006 11:02 AM

> will not be able to distinguish between Microsoft's DirectPush solution and BES email functionality

No they won't. And from a user perspective I think they're pretty much the same. And from what I've heard, the MS solution works well and is quite efficient on bandwidth too.

But... today MS aren't "quite there" in the device stakes (battery life) and OS stakes (the UI simply is broken in a number of areas, and other corp stuff is missing. A MS champion I was talking to was surprised, for example, that my 8700 has a firewall build in, out of the box). For me the questions are thus

- When MS catches up, will RIM have moved forward enough to keep the gap between them and MS? IMHO there's a lot of what MS is doing that shows they simply "don't get it" yet when it comes to PDA/phone usage models and how people want to interact and use them. But they're bound to get it right in the end...

- Do most people buying this stuff take the trouble to compare the two different product approaches properly and make an informed decision? My fear (for RIM) is that many/most do not. ("If it's MS it must be equal to or better than the competition". "If it's MS it must integrate into/be more stable in a MS environment". etc etc).

> Sustaining 70% of their revenue from propietary hardware is unrealistic...if you think I'm way off base then consider how many OEM handhelds are being introduced in 2006 with BB Connect functionality

I don't think the 70% is what RIM actually want. Main problem as I see it with the current BB Connect programme is that the BB connect versions of the client are behind the curve feature and stability wise compared with what's on RIM's own hardware.

Maybe RIM need to do a deal with a volume phone vendor and produce a fully RIM version of the 3rd party product (not a BB Connect application bolt-on), capitalising on the volume/price points of the 3rd party hardware platform, but with RIM more in control of the software. But most 3rd party platforms seem to have shorter lives than RIM's hardware - normal phones/PDAs are more prone to fashion changes. This risks the hardware being out of date (ie becomes more expensive as volumes do down) before RIM have a chance to exploit it...

W

toddz 04-09-2006 10:47 PM

Personally, I think that the big problem for RIM will be all the enterprise level companies that use Exchange/Outlook. They will be the ones that will see the ease of making the switch when it is time to upgrade the hardware. The employees won't really care as long as the phone and email works and management always likes to see complete solutions instead of peice meal. But maybe RIM has something that I don't know about.

As for software developement they are far behind others, but I think that RIM provides a good development enviroment (JDK) but falls short on the developer support. Just check out the RIM BlackBerry Developer forum, there is only 2 subforums and the format is weird. Columns are way to skinny across almost like it was meant to be read on a BlackBerry just makes for very bad reading. My advice to RIM just put a little more effort into the forums. Also, it wouldn't hurt to for them to allow time limited (say 5 days) code signatures for free or allow developers a 30 day trial where they can sign code without limits. They need to draw in developers and get them hooked without an entrance fee.

toddz

BBAdmin 04-10-2006 09:37 AM

In the last year we've been aware of something we previously didn't have to consider...competition. There will be those loyal to RIM and there will be those who will go down the MS route, but the important thing to remember is that the market is big enough for all. 40% of the corporate world uses Exchange - of that 40% only 25% run Exchange 2K3 which is a pretty small group. As time goes on more will upgrade, but a jump to 2K3 is a big step for most.

I don't accept the ROI arguements for Exchange push though. Running costs aren't a worry even though the Exchange solution is more bandwidth hungry as carriers are offering competitive data bundles often at a fixed price. Where the ROI on Exchange is screwed is the arguement that states you don't need to buy a BES or a machine to install it on. People forget the devices are a lot more expensive than a RIM device, not to mention they'll take a bit more of user support from the IT dept than a BB will, and if you're going to consider costs, you must include these elements such as time supporting users.

With the carriers we'll see great change in voice calls as well I suspect - all roads lead back to a server and the time will come where mobile calls are all just VoIP, and that will fix price everything. Just image a totally fixed cost including data for email and web browsing and a fixed call spend!!! Dream on!!!!!

jibi 04-10-2006 06:40 PM

Quote:

not to mention they'll take a bit more of user support from the IT dept
but but but... the users are already used to Windows so why wouldn't they be used to Windows Mobile as well, dur!

i love that argument... hehe.

i swear, one of our admins keeps joking about WM devices about to take off in our business and the death of BES and blah blah ... our f'n information security department has already nipped it before it ever got started. heh.

RxistKJ 04-13-2006 01:42 AM

BBAdmin, you bring up some valid points and I would like to add a few comments and get your thoughts:

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBAdmin
40% of the corporate world uses Exchange - of that 40% only 25% run Exchange 2K3 which is a pretty small group. As time goes on more will upgrade, but a jump to 2K3 is a big step for most.

25% of the current corporate market running Exchange 2K3, with more on their way, is a small group?

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBAdmin
People forget the devices are a lot more expensive than a RIM device

Currently, yes the devices are more expensive. However, in time, with the onslaught of new devices by multiple carriers, prices will go down. Moreover, with companies like TechFaithWireless (techfaithwireless.com) offering turnkey solutions out of China, and driving cost out of the Handheld supply chain, how long do you think it will take for competitors to achieve Blackberry prices? Do you think RIM will be able to maintain approximately 70% of their earnings from proprietary Handhelds?

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBAdmin
...not to mention they'll take a bit more of user support from the IT dept than a BB will, and if you're going to consider costs, you must include these elements such as time supporting users.

Very true, initially there will be a learning curve. However, as more plug/play solutions are developed, and not only by MS, support requirements should decline as well. Although I don't speak from personal experience, I imagine early pioneers who adopted RIM's Blackberry 950 around 1998 devoted a fair amount of time supporting end users.

My initial rant was simply referring to the often asked question, "Is RIM a hardware or software company, or perhaps a bit of both". More importantly, how will this soon-to-be, hypersaturated, corporate e-mail market shape the answer to that question? And by no means am I narrowing my scope to MS--there are some very interesting products in development that could chip away at the total market as well:

www.funambol.com (open source push e-mail)
www.emoze.com (free push e-mail in Beta)

Bottom line, I look forward to seeing the competition and the advancements that are made through competition. Whether or not it redefines RIM, we shall see.

Aldazar 04-13-2006 02:31 AM

What about the fact the windows-based devices are about a million times less stable, more power hungry, and less secure?
Disclaimer: I'm nowhere near as educated as you lot are on these matters, that's just my 2 cents.

berry_apps 04-13-2006 09:23 AM

I'd also like to add that everyone keeps saying that one day MS will "catch-up" to RIM....

BUT the problem with that saying is that MS will "catch-up" to where RIM is TODAY, by the time MS has feature pariody with BlackBerry, we will have a whole new world of interesting things from BlackBerry and MS will still be behind....

CrackRJack 04-13-2006 04:39 PM

Boot this
 
I appreciate that the boot on my BB doesn't take to long and I don't have to do it every day like some of my MS Smartphone friends tall me about. Thank god, my PC wastes enough of my time.

CrackRJack

RxistKJ 04-13-2006 11:34 PM

In reference to the last 3 Posts:
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RxistKJ
And by no means am I narrowing my scope to MS--there are some very interesting products in development that could chip away at the total market as well:

www.funambol.com (open source push e-mail)
www.emoze.com (free push e-mail in Beta)

Bottom line, I look forward to seeing the competition and the advancements that are made through competition. Whether or not it redefines RIM, we shall see.

You hate MS...I understand. As I quoted myself above, many more solutions are on the way and my posts clearly reflect that I am not limiting my comments, or RIM's competition, to MS...mmmkkkayyyy

Berry One 04-14-2006 07:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RxistKJ
how long do you think it will take for competitors to achieve Blackberry prices?

Not too long, perhaps.

Achieving quality of BlackBerry device is a different story. That would be hard as long as BlackBerries are made in Canada by local workforce, and code for devices written not by yesterday janitors in Balngalore but by professional software engineers in Canada as well.


Quote:

Do you think RIM will be able to maintain approximately 70% of their earnings from proprietary Handhelds?
Name cell phone or smartphone which is not proprietary. Heck, you counter proprietary RIM solution with Microsoft solution like Microsoft is not the leader of proprietarity.:smile:


Quote:

My initial rant was simply referring to the often asked question, "Is RIM a hardware or software company, or perhaps a bit of both".
Is Apple a hardware or software company, or perhaps a bit of both?

Quote:

there are some very interesting products in development that could chip away at the total market as well:

www.funambol.com (open source push e-mail)
www.emoze.com (free push e-mail in Beta)

This will kill GoodLink and any other for profit software development company specializing on push email solutions for handhelds.

Two companies will left standing: Microsoft, because they have enough money to spend without expectations of profit, and RIM- because they make profits on hardware.

Quote:

Bottom line, I look forward to seeing the competition and the advancements that are made through competition.

There will be less competition, actually. With GoodLink dead and Visto too because of OpenSource and freeware solutions and free of charge or very cheap proprietary products from Microsoft, where will be competition coming from?

Good_Guy 04-14-2006 09:32 AM

Ahh, the death knell rings for GoodLink again. Been hearing that for years. Let's address a couple of things:

1) MSFP is not push. Now, to the average end-user, it doesn't matter that the device is driving all activity. However, it WILL matter when the battery life on their devices is, shall we say, less than optimal.

2) The security issues within MSFT products is well documented. Gartner has already said that if you are planning on using MSFP, plan on getting a third party security solution.

3) Wireless messaging is just the start. RIM with MDS for back office application access, Good Mobile Defense for device security, has both organzations well ahead of MSFT for the 'beyond email' market.

4) MSFP is not as easy as MSFT would have you think. If you listen to the boys in Redmond, it is just a matter of checking a check box and ta-da, push email. An interesting article at http://www.emailbattles.com/archive/...aadbhhcfic_be/ gives a bit of detail. It references http://www.microsoft.com/technet/its...pdepguide.mspx for deployment.

5) MSFP, as already noted, requires WM5 devices and Exchange 2003 with SP2. Now, granted, the majority of new devices being released are running WM5, however, with no Palm or Symbian support, not Notes support, and only Exchange 2003, the addressable market share is smaller than that of RIM and, once we release our Notes solution, Good.

6) One factor that has remained unaddressed is the carriers. They are all about ARPU (average revenue per unit) and MSFT commoditizes their bandwidth. Incidentally, we are seeing MSFP as being a bandwidth hog when compared to RIM and Good. This is especially painful on the CDMA network since if the data connection is open, no voice can come through. EV-DO Rev A will fix this, but that is a bit out.

I am not turning this into a RIM vs Good debate as that horse has been beat to death. The bottom line, IMO, is that MSFT is a good 18-24 months out from being a true, enterprise ready solution. Good and RIM will lose some customer, especially in the SMB space, however, I think both organizations will gain more than they lose since the MSFT marketing machine will be going into overtime 'pushing' wireless email.

Berry One 04-14-2006 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Good_Guy
Ahh, the death knell rings for GoodLink again. Been hearing that for years.

Speaking about GoodLink, if all they can come in their press releases for the current month is single announcement about one law firm in Texas buying into GoodLink solution- that does not bring confidence in GoodLink success in the market.


Quote:

Let's address a couple of things:

1) MSFP is not push.
2) The security issues within MSFT
3)....
4) MSFP is not as easy
5) MSFP, as already noted,
6) MSFT commoditizes their bandwidth.
Microsoft, Microsoft, Microsoft... The fact that Good PR is not so obsessed with RIM any more and getting obsessed with Microsoft is a sign they started to see the writing on the wall.

Microsoft is one of GoodLink competitors, and while you did provide nice overview of why it is not as good as Good, you completely missed second competitor:

there are some very interesting products in development that could chip away at the total market as well:
www.funambol.com (open source push e-mail)
www.emoze.com (free push e-mail in Beta)


I would not be surprised to see these companies subsidized by one or other smartphone maker, and where would it leave GoodLink?

Squeezed by Microsoft, RIM and OpenSource in corporate market, non-competitor to Microsoft, RIM and OpenSource in consumer market- just another victim of inevitable market consolidation.

Microsoft, Apple, OpenSource- desktop.
Microsoft, UNIX, OpenSource- server.
Microsoft, RIM, OpenSource- mobile devices.

Not much competition, by the way.

Kablooey 04-14-2006 10:36 AM

I think that one thing that Microsoft will have an extremely difficult time matching is the nearly universal acceptance that the BlackBerry is safe and secure. This is why it is so popular with Government and Big Business because the name of the came is "protect your data". Microsoft is routinely blasted by industry experts for haveing the most vulnerabilities...but that is because it is feature packed! I think the Microsoft based devices will take off in the non-BES and small office market, but any threat to the big business/Government market is still a few years off...at best!

RxistKJ 04-14-2006 11:24 AM

You might be a redneck if...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Berry One
That would be hard as long as BlackBerries are made in Canada by local workforce, and code for devices written not by yesterday janitors in Balngalore but by professional software engineers in Canada as well.

You make undeducated, egocentric comments like this...

Good_Guy 04-14-2006 11:32 AM

Again, not trying to make this a RIM vs Good thread, though you seemed to be obsessed with such. We don't release every deal we make.

As for your comment about being obsessed with MSFT, this thread is about MSFT, hence the reply. My points were not why Good is better than MSFT. My comments were why RIM and Good are better than MSFT.

Regarding the open-source products, I have to disagree. I don't see any major manufacturer subsidizing those products. Best case, they are SMB/Consumer space products, not enterprise, and there are more established players already in that area. Good already has the three major US carriers selling our product. RIM, obviously has a huge relationship with the carriers. Internationally, there are carriers coming, but RIM does own that market, no doubt.

People have been saying Good would collapse to Visto, Intellisync, Seven and RIM, and now MSFT, but it has yet to happen. Yes, consolidation in this space is happening, but the youngest player, Good, is still standing.

wibbly 04-14-2006 11:38 AM

I am a BB fan but having seen MSFP in action it seems

- regardless of the actual protocol in use, users see email delivered instantly, so at the least it's 'virtual push' as far as they are concerned. IMHO push per se is overrated anyway. Look at how many are happy using BIS's push to the BB, but PULL from POP servers... The way the MSFP protocol works, AFAIK, is that there's actually no pull involved. The normal qiescent state is that the device is waiting for the server to deliver a message ("instantly"). That message triggers an update of whatever is then required. Periodically (after a long time period, or after the link is lost), the device and server re-negotiate the quiescent state above.

- MSFP isn't a bandwidth hog when running UNTIL you download mail WITH it's attachements. Here, BB wins with it's rendering of content. "Keep alive" and background negotiation protocols with the MSFT solution really are minimal. But with more carriers moving to all you can eat tarriffs, this is becoming an ever more mute point.

- I still agree RIM has the definite edge on security, managability, and stability. All these things are important to business use.

W

Berry One 04-14-2006 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Good_Guy
Regarding the open-source products, I have to disagree... Best case, they are SMB/Consumer space products, not enterprise, and there are more established players already in that area.

Linux was just hobbyist desktop OS running on Intel processor few years ago. See what it has done to more established UNIX players in enterprise.

joginder 04-14-2006 01:21 PM

i know it looks like RIM is moving towards the sofware side. if you take a look on what Nokia has done in the past. Nokia aquired Symbion software maker in order to keep the control on Mobile market.
Now Since Symbion OS is the most secured and most used in mobiles and Nokia is hitting lot more vertical markets.

Same practice is being applied by RIM and they can not survive just by throwing hardware and rely on someone else for OS on it..

Also RIM said that in Jul-Jul this yr, RIM is eatering Chinese market to beat RedBerry (??) which means RIM is serious to deal the Asia and EU on it competition map and less on US because market in US looks lot more saturated and less lucrative.
my 2 cents

RxistKJ 04-15-2006 06:09 AM

Original?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Berry One
Not too long, perhaps.

Achieving quality of BlackBerry device is a different story. That would be hard as long as BlackBerries are made in Canada by local workforce, and code for devices written not by yesterday janitors in Balngalore but by professional software engineers in Canada as well.

Is that the best you can say? C'mon Redneck, be a little more intelligent than that?




Quote:

Originally Posted by Berry One
Name cell phone or smartphone which is not proprietary. Heck, you counter proprietary RIM solution with Microsoft solution like Microsoft is not the leader of proprietarity.:smile:

I already did, and provided the link for you: techfaithwireless.com. Again, a little more research and intelligence on your behalf goes a long way.




Quote:

Originally Posted by Berry One
Is Apple a hardware or software company, or perhaps a bit of both?

Gee...why don't you ask Steve Jobs this question...one that analysts have been asking for many years...




Quote:

Originally Posted by Berry One
This will kill GoodLink and any other for profit software development company specializing on push email solutions for handhelds.

Two companies will left standing: Microsoft, because they have enough money to spend without expectations of profit, and RIM- because they make profits on hardware

There will be less competition, actually. With GoodLink dead and Visto too because of OpenSource and freeware solutions and free of charge or very cheap proprietary products from Microsoft, where will be competition coming from?

Time will tell but judging from your previous comments, I feel pretty safe wagering against you...


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