[secrecyguy]

I know this already been mention but I don't feel like going though bunch of posts here.

What is the release date when the iPhone comes out for sale?

[backbeat]

Originally Posted by secrecyguy

I know this already been mention but I don't feel like going though bunch of posts here.

What is the release date when the iPhone comes out for sale?

June '07.

[tfaz1]

I think it might be enlightening to many here to go back in time to 2001 (shortly after the original iPod announcement) and see all the reasons people said the iPod would fail. The link at the bottom of this page is to a thread that popped up immedately after the iPod release. I should point out the site is MacRumors.com (a widely popular Apple fan site).

Reasons people thought the iPod would fail:
- Price
- Lacking Removable Battery
- Comparable products already on the market
- Apple's inexperience with these types of products

Sound at all familiar to criticisms put forth on this thread? History does have a way of repeating itself. (link below)

Apple's New Thing - Mac Forums

[Mark Rejhon]

Very insightful. Time will tell whether iPhone succeeds on the market. I think it will, and Apple will probably release several iterations over the years (full touchscreen, hybrid with a pull-out clickwheel, thinner model, 3G model).

Naysayers say a lot of things. For example, I see lots of people complaining. Let's play the devil's advocate.

Touchscreens are bad! But I have a feeling that the iPhone will be the most successful touchscreen product ever released: Outselling all TREO's ever manufactured to date. I realize, I prefer a tactile device, but from the videos I've seen of the iPhone, it is the best touchscreen I've ever seen. The pinch gesture (YouTube) and the finger-panning appears to solve a major problem in easily zooming in/out web browser windows, photos, etc. Also, it looked like you could type on the iPhone onscreen keyboard sorta quickly too (disadvantage: You can't touchtype, since you have to look at the keyboard), and you could even tap the next key on the onscreen keyboard before releasing the previous key, which means you can have two keys pressed at the same time - and they would register "in order of keypress" like a real keyboard. I have a Blackberry Touchtypist FAQ in my link at the bottom of my message. However, most people don't touchtype on a phone anyway. The multitouch screen also ignores accidental taps, which means in theory you can write on the screen with an optional stylus, with your wrist resting on the bottom of the screen, and it would know that the little sharp point of pressure was the stylus -- many Pocket PC users have no doubt experienced the annoyance of mis-writing because another part of their hand was touching the screen. Now, if this technology is proven to work properly, and if it does, then this will certainly be the best and most user-friendly touchscreen developed so far....

I miss a tactile keyboard. Of course, many of us will always prefer a keyboard (myself included), but I am often a two-gadget person. Many people are anyway. People carry iPod and BlackBerry. They can always carry an external keyboard: Bluetooth keyboards are going to sprout up like kudzu in the accessory market. Imagine a tiny Bluetooth BlackBerry-sized wireless thumb keyboard. This is not as convenient as a BlackBerry for sure, but the consumer people (people who buy THEIR OWN BlackBerry) are going to not care as much about a tactile thumb keyboard, if Apple has somehow ended up invented an amazingly-accurate very-errorfree touchscreen... (this remains to be seen). Now, I probably will always buy BlackBerry (as long as RIM keeps innovating), but I am a two-device person (for many reasons) and I also own an iPaq. I'm within the target market for Apple, for example, since I am looking to replace my iPaq. Especially if Apple remains friendly to third party accessories (i.e. Bluetooth GPS pucks, Bluetooth keyboards -- then I can use my existing iPaq accessories. Yay!)

Full screen PDA's break easily and scratch easily! But I heard they used some ultra-durable anti-scratch screen surface. They probably learned their lesson from scratched iPod's and hopefully it also survives drops much better than past "full-screen-fronted" handhelds. Drop-testing is an assumed part of major cellphones these days - and Apple already knows this. (I hate to imagine all the early iPhones damaged by durability testing)

No third party software! Perhaps true now, but that's not going to be true in a year from now. Look at what happened to RIM. They were very closed at first, but opened the BlackBerry eventually to third party software. MacOS developers are already clamoring their excitement. And Apple did already have third party software: They have the Opera web browser, for example. The platform clearly is technically capable of it, being a MacOS X device (with, by the UI looks and rumors of easy porting, a fairly large subset of existing API's). Just give them time.

First products are unstable That's probably true. It's going to need lots of updates - hopefully it can do these updates very quickly wirelessly over WiFi; Such intelligent built-in updating would make up for a little inconvenience of being a Version 1 product. I think Apple did a lot of homework. There will probably be many glitches, but Apple's history has been fairly good recently (compared to other vendors) in releasing what are apparently very good products. I've never bought anything from Apple, but I get a very good impression from them (as long as I ignore the 'cult' atmosphere -- I don't really care for that stuff). Time will tell whether this is a very glitchy phone, or that they pulled off a relatively stable product. And we can always wait for Version 2 or Version 3, too. Although, Apple's Version 2 products tend to reach maturity better than certain companie's Version 3 products - due to their very skill UI design team, considered to be among the best in the world.

[SanFrancisco]

Interesting point to make, especially since back when tech stocks crashed I dumped $50k in Apple stock when I lost confidence in it, when it was down to about $12 a share.

So I'm not one to rely on for predictions.

Originally Posted by tfaz1

I think it might be enlightening to many here to go back in time to 2001 (shortly after the original iPod announcement) and see all the reasons people said the iPod would fail. The link at the bottom of this page is to a thread that popped up immedately after the iPod release. I should point out the site is MacRumors.com (a widely popular Apple fan site).

Reasons people thought the iPod would fail:
- Price
- Lacking Removable Battery
- Comparable products already on the market
- Apple's inexperience with these types of products

Sound at all familiar to criticisms put forth on this thread? History does have a way of repeating itself. (link below)

Apple's New Thing - Mac Forums

[lmlloyd]

Originally Posted by tfaz1

Reasons people thought the iPod would fail:
- Price
- Lacking Removable Battery
- Comparable products already on the market
- Apple's inexperience with these types of products

Sound at all familiar to criticisms put forth on this thread? History does have a way of repeating itself. (link below)

Yeah, except for one HUGE difference. How long had the MP3 player market been around in 2001, and how many companies were competing with Apple for that market in 2001? The mobile phone market has been here for decades. So long, in fact, that you have companies like Motorola who almost lost everything, were almost counted out, only to claw their way back to the top.

When the iPod came out, there had not been a single real mass market success. No one had the first idea what a "hit" product would look like. Apple's biggest competition was Rio (who was changing owners every week) and Creative (who had all of one MP3 player product). They were also just about the only company in the market not fighting legal battles with the RIAA over their product.

I hardly see what the relevance is of comments made about Apple entering a 3-year old market, when we are talking about how they are now entering a 30-year-old market! This isn't like the iPod. There have been more mega-hit phones on the market, than the you can even count. Yes, you are absolutely right, a lot of people in 2001 got it wrong when guessing what might or might not be a success in a market that started in 1998. That doesn't mean that people are just as wrong in 2007, when discussing what might or might not be a hit in a market that started in 1978!

There is a lot more precedent to go on, and a lot more successes and failures to use as your guide. Unlike the MP3 player market in 2001, most of the phones out right now, are the product of an endless cycle of fine tuning over decades. Hell, even the PDA market is over a decade old now. If they have a feature, more likely than not it isn't just in there because someone thought it was neat, it is in there for a reason, and as a result of a lot of in-the-field testing and feedback.

If you really think that there is even a passing similarity between Apple's position entering the MP3 market, and their position entering the phone market, then you either fundamentally don't understand the phone market, or you are deluding yourself. I assure you that Nokia, Motorola, Sony/Ericcson, Microsoft, NTT, and the other players in the mobile phone market are not sitting around right now saying "why didn't we think of that?" In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of the bigger companies aren't hoping all this buzz will generate interest in their similar devices that have been out for a while now.

Honestly, I think Apple's strengths are better suited to the burgeoning digital home video market, where they can attempt to define it in its infancy, like they did with the portable audio player market. Unfortunately, Microsoft has been aggressively fighting them in that space, and beat them to the punch with the 360, and the movie studios are determined not to let themselves fall into the trap the record labels did by handing everything over to Apple. So, I guess they decided to hype up the iPhone instead of the iTV.

[lmlloyd]

Originally Posted by Mark Rejhon

No third party software! Perhaps true now, but that's not going to be true in a year from now. Look at what happened to RIM. They were very closed at first, but opened the BlackBerry eventually to third party software. MacOS developers are already clamoring their excitement. And Apple did already have third party software: They have the Opera web browser, for example. The platform clearly is technically capable of it, being a MacOS X device (with, by the UI looks and rumors of easy porting, a fairly large subset of existing API's). Just give them time.

Steve Jobs' comments on the subject to the New York Times are “We define everything that is on the phone,” he said. “You don’t want your phone to be like a PC. The last thing you want is to have loaded three apps on your phone and then you go to make a call and it doesn’t work anymore. These are more like iPods than they are like computers.”

And:

“These are devices that need to work, and you can’t do that if you load any software on them,” he said. “That doesn’t mean there’s not going to be software to buy that you can load on them coming from us. It doesn’t mean we have to write it all, but it means it has to be more of a controlled environment.”

It sounds to me like it is going to strictly be a commercial software device, with no way for a hobbyist to get anything on it.

[GMK]

This locked platform sure sounds like old Apple to me. My way or the highway. I'm not an Apple baiter but you'd think they would at least remember their own history and how keeping it all to themselves almost cost them their business.

It doesn't take a consumer long to figure out he has a bum piece of software. Study this forum. I'll bet there are at least a dozen posts a day of, "didn't work, blew it off." We're really not as incapable as he makes us out to be. Bad show.

[GMK]

For those that nay say that the iPhone won't stimulate the introduction of new products. Here's what Samsung has to say.

Kim said that the iPhone will be able to penetrate the high end of the mobile phone market. Samsung, the world's third-largest manufacturer of mobile handsets, is a key player there with multifunction models like the BlackJack and Trace.

"But still we have an opportunity," Kim added as Apple's promotion of the device "means demand will be created" which could also benefit Samsung.

"So we will continue to introduce a variety of specialized function phones in the multimedia area," he said.

Excerpted from: Samsung hopes to build on iPhone launch - Yahoo! News

[busterkat]

Originally Posted by GMK

For those that nay say that the iPhone won't stimulate the introduction of new products. Here's what Samsung has to say.

Kim said that the iPhone will be able to penetrate the high end of the mobile phone market. Samsung, the world's third-largest manufacturer of mobile handsets, is a key player there with multifunction models like the BlackJack and Trace.

"But still we have an opportunity," Kim added as Apple's promotion of the device "means demand will be created" which could also benefit Samsung.

"So we will continue to introduce a variety of specialized function phones in the multimedia area," he said.

Excerpted from: Samsung hopes to build on iPhone launch - Yahoo! News

and this is truly the right way to think about it. This device will not corner the market, it will expand the market for like devices. Instead of trying to get a bigger piece of the pie, why not just make the pie bigger??!!

[teamcrn]

I think apple is smart enough to know they will never topple microsoft. That isnt even there plan. The funny thing is microsoft has a vested intrest in apple and wants them to do well. When jobs got rehired microsoft invested 150 million dollars into apple. the only people that go around hating eachother are the consumers because all of the silicon valley boys are friends an in bed with each other. i have no loyalty to any company. i buy what works. and right now my macs work and my pc doesnt. easy choice for me. same goes for my phone.. my bb works right now but the iphone looks like something of intrest. the only thing thats scaring me is cingular.. i might just buy it and get data only

[tfaz1]

Originally Posted by lmlloyd

If you really think that there is even a passing similarity between Apple's position entering the MP3 market, and their position entering the phone market, then you either fundamentally don't understand the phone market, or you are deluding yourself.

And you obviously don't fundamentally understand the definition of "passing similarity."

My purpose for linking to that 6 year old discussion about the original iPod was to show that, yes, even Mac users had their reservations about this totally new product. And I thought that it would be interesting to show that a lot of the criticisms people had against the iPod then are the same ones they have against the iPhone now. There are a lot of similarities. If you don't see that, are you sure you aren't the one "deluding" yourself?

I just think it's funny (as in really funny and not a figure of speech) that you, who seems to have endless time to craft these long, elaborate responses on a gadget message board, are also a part-time expert in telecommunications, consumer electronics and (if I remember correctly) UI development. Yeah, I'm sure Apple is still kicking themselves wondering how they didn't get you on their team. Why did you turn down their offers? Was it the incentives? The stock options? I can see Steve Jobs in his office screaming at the walls... "What do we have to offer him?!? I MUST have lmlloyd on the iPhone project!!"

Look, I don't profess to be an expert in any of the things we're talking about. I would say that if I was, I'd probably be too rich and too busy to trouble myself this discussion. But one thing I do know about Apple is that even the most junior member of the iPhone teams knows more about the marketplace than you or I and it seems a little silly - nay - downright ridiculous to pretend to have all this insight that somehow the combined forces of Apple, Cingular, Google and Yahoo have somehow missed over the last 30 months of iPhone development.

Yeah, the iPhone might be a "total flop." Just like the iPod, right??

Or, it could be a huge success. Just like the iPod.

We'll see who's version of the iPod this product turns out to be.

[DallasFlier]

Originally Posted by tfaz1

I just think it's funny (as in really funny and not a figure of speech) that you, who seems to have endless time to craft these long, elaborate responses on a gadget message board, are also a part-time expert in telecommunications, consumer electronics and (if I remember correctly) UI development. Yeah, I'm sure Apple is still kicking themselves wondering how they didn't get you on their team. Why did you turn down their offers? Was it the incentives? The stock options? I can see Steve Jobs in his office screaming at the walls... "What do we have to offer him?!? I MUST have lmlloyd on the iPhone project!!"

Not the first time you've descended into drippingly-sarcastic personal attacks here. The above adds ZERO light to the discussion, just a lot of heat - and speaks much more about YOU than it does about him.

Originally Posted by tfaz1

Yeah, the iPhone might be a "total flop." Just like the iPod, right??

Or, it could be a huge success. Just like the iPod.

We'll see who's version of the iPod this product turns out to be.

How about a third option - much more reasoned and rational and likely to be closer to reality, I think?

See my post in another thread HERE.

I think this thing (final name TBD) is without a doubt the single BEST device I've ever seen for multimedia music/video/photos/mobile web browsing. The feature set and interface for those functions is unparallelled, ok? Essentially what it is is a superlative multimedia device, with a passing nod to phone/email use. On the other hand, and at the other end of the spectrum entirely, the BlackBerry is a superlative phone/email device, with a passing nod to multimedia capability. Will they sell a fair number to a market niche composed of people who want THE BEST multimedia device on the market and to whom phone and email service is an afterthought? Absolutely. But that is a niche - and to be fair, Apple's own projections of 1% penetration seem to validate the fact that even they know its a niche product. Its interesting that Mark Rehjon started the other thread asking if anyone would pick this device up JUST as a multimedia and web browsing device. I think that's its forte. It dramatically advances the state of the art from things like iPaq's and similar for a multimedia and web browsing device. It does NOT advance the state of the art for phone and email use.

[GMK]

Originally Posted by DallasFlier

I think this thing (final name TBD) is without a doubt the single BEST device I've ever seen for multimedia music/video/photos/mobile web browsing. The feature set and interface for those functions is unparallelled, ok? Essentially what it is is a superlative multimedia device, with a passing nod to phone/email use. On the other hand, and at the other end of the spectrum entirely, the BlackBerry is a superlative phone/email device, with a passing nod to multimedia capability.

Based on what little bit of the iPhone I have seen, this is the best assessment/comparison w' BB Pearl in this thread.

[TheBigNewt]

I'm sure it'll be a great MM device, albeit with a slow browser. And it can't be that hard to make it good phone. The possible Achilles heel could be email (document handling, formats, archiving), but that isn't that hard either. It won't be as good as a BB for that. And my prediction is the price will come down, just like it did with the iPod. I think the G1 15gb was $500. Or at least the price won't go up and the features will get better. Apple has a way of maintaining their profit margin.

[backbeat]

Originally Posted by lmlloyd

Steve Jobs' comments on the subject to the New York Times are “We define everything that is on the phone,” he said. “You don’t want your phone to be like a PC. The last thing you want is to have loaded three apps on your phone and then you go to make a call and it doesn’t work anymore. These are more like iPods than they are like computers.”

And:

“These are devices that need to work, and you can’t do that if you load any software on them,” he said. “That doesn’t mean there’s not going to be software to buy that you can load on them coming from us. It doesn’t mean we have to write it all, but it means it has to be more of a controlled environment.”

It's clear that Apple is taking the road less traveled and, frankly, I find it a bit of fresh air. Why would they have any desire to bring an Apple-esque clone of Windows Mobile to market? Who needs another 'Me Too' handset?! Enough with the cookie-cutter approach already!

No one here has any validated reason to believe that Apple will not build this iPhone foundation into a fully capable business machine. No one! This fact, however, doesn't prevent some to allow the truth to get into the way of pulling out the pitchfork and torch treatment to anything that seems ferrun to them. Yeah, that's progress.

It sounds to me like it is going to strictly be a commercial software device, with no way for a hobbyist to get anything on it.

That's what Linux is for.

[lmlloyd]

Originally Posted by tfaz1

I just think it's funny (as in really funny and not a figure of speech) that you, who seems to have endless time to craft these long, elaborate responses on a gadget message board, are also a part-time expert in telecommunications, consumer electronics and (if I remember correctly) UI development.

You are so right! No one who has time to write about anything, or think about anything, has any right to comment on those subjects, because if they knew what they were talking about, they would be far too busy to ever let anyone know what they thought.

So, let's close up all those web pages, regulatory agencies, news outlets, political action groups, universities, financial analysis companies, and publishing companies, because writers and analysts are just a bunch of lay-abouts wasting everyone's time. Surely if there is anything important anyone in society needs to think about, it will come out in the form of an official company press release. I mean, everyone knows that if you have anything of value to say, you are going to be writing company press releases, right?

[lmlloyd]

Originally Posted by tfaz1

it seems a little silly - nay - downright ridiculous to pretend to have all this insight that somehow the combined forces of Apple, Cingular, Google and Yahoo have somehow missed over the last 30 months of iPhone development.

By that same logic, wouldn't it be a little silly - nay - downright ridiculous to pretend that Apple has all this insight that somehow the combined forces of Nokia, Motorola, Ericsson and NTT have somehow missed over the last 30 years of Phone development?

[DallasFlier]

Originally Posted by backbeat

No one here has any validated reason to believe that Apple will not build this iPhone foundation into a fully capable business machine. No one! This fact, however, doesn't prevent some to allow the truth to get into the way of pulling out the pitchfork and torch treatment to anything that seems ferrun to them.

No one here has any validated reason to believe that Apple will build this iPhone foundation into a fully capable business machine. No one! This fact, however, doesn't prevent some to allow the truth to get into the way of pulling out the pitchfork and torch treatment to anything that seems ferrun to them.

Interesting - that statement works every bit as well the second way as the first!

[backbeat]

Originally Posted by DallasFlier

No one here has any validated reason to believe that Apple will build this iPhone foundation into a fully capable business machine. No one! This fact, however, doesn't prevent some to allow the truth to get into the way of pulling out the pitchfork and torch treatment to anything that seems ferrun to them.

Interesting - that statement works every bit as well the second way as the first!

Maybe I shoulda said n u k y a l e r for some to get it.

Here's how this discussion has gone ... Apple iPhone Announced -> Naysayer's/Pilers-On regurgitate every negative piece of tripe they can lay their hands on -> Naysayers get called on it for not being level-handed in their treatment -> Naysayers cry Foul. Poor you.

Lack of evidence is your burden to deal with regarding what the iPhone may/may not become, yet your forthcoming diatribe against all-things-ferrin remains the same. Devoid of integrity.